目的 分析养老保险及医疗保险与生育水平的关系，为进一步完善生育政策提供参考。方法 运用向量自回归 (VAR) 模型分析养老与医疗保险水平分别对生育水平的动态影响关系。结果 养老保险水平对生育水平有先负后正的动态影响关系， 医疗保险水平对生育水平主要以短期负向影响为主，长期影响关系存在的可能性较低。结论 应进一步提升养老及医疗保险水 平，降低社会生育成本，提高社会生育水平。

Objective To analyze the impact of pension insurance and medical insurance on fertility rate, so as to further optimize family planning policies. Methods A vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used to analyze the dynamic relationship between pension/medical insurance and fertility level. Results The impact of pension insurance on fertility level was negative and then positive; in contrast, the medical insurance had mainly a negative short-term impact on fertility level, and the possibility of a long-term impact was low. Conclusions The levels of pension insurance and medical insurance should be further upgraded to lower the cost of fertility and boost fertility.