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养老保险及医疗保险水平对生育水平的影响分析
Impact of pension insurance and medical insurance on fertility rate

作者:徐康顺 范君晖

单位:上海,上海工程技术大学管理学院

关键词:养老保险;医疗保险;医疗保障;生育;VAR 模型

分类号:C923

DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-7432.2021.04.001

出版年,卷(期),页码:2021,11 (4):1-7

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摘要:

目的 分析养老保险及医疗保险与生育水平的关系,为进一步完善生育政策提供参考。方法 运用向量自回归 (VAR) 模型分析养老与医疗保险水平分别对生育水平的动态影响关系。结果 养老保险水平对生育水平有先负后正的动态影响关系, 医疗保险水平对生育水平主要以短期负向影响为主,长期影响关系存在的可能性较低。结论 应进一步提升养老及医疗保险水 平,降低社会生育成本,提高社会生育水平。

英文摘要:

Objective To analyze the impact of pension insurance and medical insurance on fertility rate, so as to further optimize family planning policies. Methods A vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used to analyze the dynamic relationship between pension/medical insurance and fertility level. Results The impact of pension insurance on fertility level was negative and then positive; in contrast, the medical insurance had mainly a negative short-term impact on fertility level, and the possibility of a long-term impact was low. Conclusions The levels of pension insurance and medical insurance should be further upgraded to lower the cost of fertility and boost fertility.

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