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广东省中医类卫生资源需求预测分析

Predictive analysis of the demand for resources of traditional Chinese medicine in Guangdong Province

作者:

李金燕 徐明珍 李京伟 何聪

单位:

广州,广州中医药大学第四临床医学院(李金燕);深圳市中医院(徐明珍、李京伟、何聪)

关键词:

广东省;中医资源;需求预测;资源配置

分类号:

R197

DOI:

10.3969/j.issn.2095-7432.2022.01.003

出版年,卷(期),页码:2022,12 (1):12-16

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摘要:

目的 对广东省中医类卫生资源进行预测分析,观察其与“十四五”中医药发展规划中的要求是否匹配,为后期相 关政策的制定提供参考依据。方法 从国家中医药管理局发布的《全国中医药统计摘编》中获取广东省 2011 年—2019 年的中 医类医院床位数、机构数、技术人员数、执业 ( 助理 ) 中医师数、中药师(士)数等数据,运用灰色系统 GM(1,1) 模型对广东省 中医类卫生资源需求进行预测。结果 从 2020 年—2025 年卫生资源数的预测值看,广东省中医类医院卫生资源数量总体呈上 升趋势,2025 年床位数、机构数、执业中医师、执业助理医师、卫生技术人员、中医药师数量将分别达到 79 783 张、186 所、 18 886 人、611 人、100 641 人、2 816 人,年平均增长率分别为 6.70%、1.51%、6.93%、4.41%、6.21%、1.12%。与 2011 年— 2019 年年均增长率相比,2020 年—2025 年的执业(助理)中医师数年均增长率将进一步增大,而其他卫生资源的增长率则有 所下降。结论 在资源配置过程中应注重提质增效,对中医院的管理应倾向于增强其内部规划的合理性,控制规模及床位数的 盲目扩张,进一步优化人才制度和治理体系,以推动广东省中医药事业高质量发展。

英文摘要:

Objective To predict and analyze the health resources of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in Guangdong Province, and investigate whether these resources meet the requirements during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, so as to provide evidence for future policy development. Methods The data on the number of TCM hospital beds, institutions, technicians, practicing (assistant) TCM physicians, and TCM pharmacists in Guangdong Province from 2011 to 2019 were obtained from the National TCM Statistical Digest released by the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, and a grey GM(1,1) model was used to forecast the demand for TCM health resources in Guangdong Province. Results Based on the predicted values of TCM resources in 2020- 2025, the amount of health resources in TCM hospitals shows an increasing trend in Guangdong Province, and the number of beds, institutions, practicing TCM physicians, practicing assistant physicians, health technicians, and TCM pharmacists will reach 79,783, 186, 18,886, 611, 100 641, and 2,816, respectively, in 2025, with average annual growth rates of 6.70%, 1.51%, 6.93%, 4.41%, 6.21%, and 1.12%, respectively. Compared with the average annual growth rate during the period from 2011 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of the number of licensed (assistant) TCM practitioners will further increase from 2020 to 2025, although the growth rate of other health resources will decrease. Conclusion The government should further improve the quality and efficiency in the allocationof TCM resources. In managing TCM hospitals, the rationality of their internal planning should be enhanced and blind increase in their size and bed number should be avoided, along with optimized human resource system and governance system, so as to promote the high-quality development of TCM in Guangdong Province.

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